It's time to have a conversation about electability politics. This ridiculous element of our political reality should have been obliterated when Trump was elected president twice, because he defeated the electability argument multiple times [00:00:19] various polling data. Remember when 15 Republicans were on a debate stage, and they were all so horrible that Democrats were pulling for Jeb Bush and saying, put it up for a Texas Senate primary, exposed the electability argument, [00:00:37] the Biden presidency, the election, the primary exposed the electability argument. A person is as electable as your willingness to vote for them, period. [00:00:54] A racial divide in the Democratic electorate made the decision to elect James Talarico, and I have no issue against the dear brother to be the Democratic nominee for the Texas Senate race. What I do have issue with is what we call the background of the data, [00:01:14] or the reasoning as to why people selected him in the primary. Talarico victory came with the support from white voters, particularly those who are college educated, and a boost from Latinos in Texas. Crockett's coalition, meanwhile, counted on huge margins [00:01:32] among black voters to offset her weaker white and Latino support. Which is fine. So you got some identity politics happening. You have some ideological differences that are minor, but there but then you have something else. It's called electability politics. [00:01:50] Okay, where the vote or the voter doesn't cast their vote for the person they believe can best advocate their position and values, they cast their vote based on a measuring system of their ability to be elected against a white man in a [00:02:08] Republican matchup in a general election. So that's basically the electability argument. Can my candidate from the Democratic Party defeat the candidate, the champion of the Republican Party, they put up against them? [00:02:23] Here's the problem with that argument. The measure of your calculation, the entire framework of your calculation is based on the framework that they gave, is based on the measuring matrix that they have created in bias. [00:02:43] So if you're going to utilize their bias metric system in order to calculate your ability to win and overcome their bias ideology, it may be a problem. [00:02:58] Let's get into it ahead of election night, A few public polls released showed anything from a tied race to a double digit lead for either candidate, [00:03:16] but aggregates of polls did confirm racial trends that was common in all of the polls. Talarico enjoyed double digit support from white Democrats and more than 20 point [00:03:32] margin for the Democratic strategist. Adam Carlson's crosstab aggregator, and he seemed to gain with these voters as Election Day neared. Crockett, meanwhile, was sweeping the black vote, holding a 72 [00:03:49] point margin in the aggregate. All right. These are your crosstabs of the data. The Democratic primary highlighted the stark racial divisions in many areas of Texas, a diverse state where Latino residents make up about 40% [00:04:07] of the entire population. Mr. Talarico dominated in Austin and its suburbs, which have large numbers of white voters. Black voters favored Mrs. Crockett even more in urban neighborhoods and in East Texas, where many black Democrats live. [00:04:23] The vast majority of Latino voters in Texas live in diverse urban counties, and Mr. Talarico Edge extended into those counties as well. But Miss Crockett narrowly won some of the state's largest cities, including Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston, in large part because of her [00:04:41] overwhelming advantage among black voters. Identity politics, to some degree present will be present in almost every election. The results in Harris County, which include. That includes Houston okay, suggest a very sharp racial divide. [00:04:59] Miss Crockett won more than 80%, 86%, to be precise, of the vote in predominantly black precincts. While Mr. Talarico look, looked favorable in the voter [00:05:15] performance data. 75% in white ones. That trend continued in other predominantly Hispanic parts of the county. Mr. Talarico won in precincts with a mix of Hispanic and white voters, but lost in neighborhoods with a large Black and Hispanic population. [00:05:31] So let's talk about the self-fulfilling prophecy of electability politics. Okay, a quiet premise. Has hardened into conventional wisdom in certain corners of liberal America. [00:05:47] This is from The Daily Beast, written by Shaw. It takes a straight white man to win, not because of superior ideas or broader vision, but because white male identity is treated as inherently more electable, [00:06:05] more broadly palatable in congressional and statewide primary electability now operates as a prescreening device, shaping donor behavior and media narratives before voters have fully engaged. [00:06:21] In Texas, for example, the Democratic Senate primary between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico explicitly revolved around questions of electability. Talarico framed the contest around who could win statewide, elevating general election viability as the central question and qualification. [00:06:41] It worked. That night he won against the rising star congresswoman. Through the campaign, though, Crockett had challenged the electability premise itself, arguing that doubts about her path reflected deeper assumptions about who [00:06:57] Democrats believe can win in a red state. That's because electability often functions as less as empirical conclusions than as a fear creating self-fulfilling prophecy loop. It is not always grounded in clear data about voter behavior, but instead [00:07:15] gets shaped by donor anxiety, consultant orthodoxy, and media narratives about what middle America supposedly wants. Those narratives can become determinative. [00:07:31] When party elites signal that certain identities are liability, fundraising can dry up for those candidates. When money disappears, viability does too. What begins as a prediction about bias can harden into the very structure [00:07:48] that reproduces it. It's called manifestation. It's unfortunate because we have so many amazing examples of how manifestation can work for you and against you. [00:08:04] It just depends on how you choose to utilize your conscious awareness of it. Once again, Trump was elected twice, considered to be the most electable human being in all of the Republican Party. They said a black man could never be president of the United States. [00:08:20] He could never win the presidency. Barack Obama, President Barack Obama did it twice. He did it by winning both the popular vote and the Electoral College, which means not only did he win the constitutional mandate to be president, but he won the hearts and minds of the majority of people who voted. [00:08:36] So electability politics comes down to one thing. Do you believe they're elected? That's it. That's the only question. Do you believe they are elected? That was the calculation that Trump supporters made when everyone in the Republican Party told them he could not be the guy he's not elected. [00:08:53] Same thing with President Barack Obama. Polar opposites in their political ideology, but similar, similar Manifestation ideology, backed them, supported them, and brought them to the presidency, both of them. [00:09:09] President Obama ran on the message of hope. People decided to disregard the racial bias that is innate in many and voted for. Trump ran on a platform of fear. His people voted for him. Okay, there's more to. [00:09:28] This dynamic, according to the writer, creates a distinct double blind or double blind. Excuse me. For women and minorities inside the Democratic coalition, who are expected to concede that white men are often the most [00:09:45] strategic choice in competitive races because prejudice remains a constant set by the electorate and at the same time, not to discuss the racism and sexism embedded in that assumption or in the practices that reinforce it. [00:10:00] And the data doesn't pan out that way. Who has lost more elections in this nation's history than any other demographic. Well, white men, white men have lost more elections than any other demographic. But no one says, well, we can't run white men anymore. [00:10:16] They lose too many elections. Racism. The vast majority of individuals who are not white. Out of every group says they have says they have experienced. They say they have experienced some level of racism in the workplace. Okay. At some point in their career, the vast majority, the vast majority of those [00:10:34] racist incidents were done by white men. But for some reason, white men in the general demographic sense, they're not considered racist as a generalization. So when we talk about electability politics, understand it's a fear tactic [00:10:53] that has been utilized successfully to get you to provide a moderate choice for their mediocre politician, rather than one that provides a contrast of radical progression. Because you win if you go all in. That's how this works. [00:11:14] All right. Democrats depend on women voters, women and voters of color as the backbone of their coalition. The question is not whether prejudice exists. It does. The question is whether the party will treat prejudice as an immutable law [00:11:30] of political gravity, or as a force that can and should be contested. A diverse democracy cannot be sustained by quietly reinforcing the idea that power is safest in the hands of those who have historically held it. And, may I add, effed it up because you [00:11:49] can bet that at some point the communities consistently told that they are not viable for a seat at the table or stopped showing up to do the grassroots work. They could deliver the very swing districts [00:12:04] that these debates center around. If the party is serious about building a durable coalition, it must confront the reality openly, rather than asking those most affected by it to remain silent [00:12:20] and sidelined for the sake of strategy. Houston based political strategist Taylor Coleman said, quote, A lot of black women who work in the Democratic Party vote for Democrats organized for Democrats have always had a sense of this. [00:12:36] It is a lot more apparent now. A lot of people in the Democratic Party want our labor. They do not want our leadership. They want your money, too. If you remember, black women broke the record for single day contributions when [00:12:52] VP Harris at the time made the official announcement that she will be running for president of the United States, she did not have a fair opportunity. She had a disadvantage because Biden did not step down after the first term, conclusively leaving her with a fragmented opportunity [00:13:10] to appeal to the American voter. I put her up for a mass. However, Texas State Representative Yolanda Jones, a Democrat, said, quote, people who don't understand politics will be upset because Jasmine was their hero. [00:13:27] End quote. But for people who understand politics, Crockett literally had no ground game, she added. This ale is on her. One black national Democratic operative, granted anonymity, gave a candid [00:13:43] assessment of Crockett's campaign, saying, quote, she ran an effing terrible campaign that many will question if she's running a campaign at all. Quote, in many ways, she has been and has felt like a woman on an island, says Stefanie Brown James, [00:13:59] co-founder of the collective PAC, which works to elect black candidates to local, state and federal offices. Quote, even though she has substance. Not everyone likes her style, she added. And I think that sometimes her style is one is not appealing, especially to the old guard Democrats, whose fighting style is antiquated and outdated. [00:14:16] The irony of it all. The irony of it all. You don't like her style. Trump is President XI. She rubs some people the wrong way because she's on an island by herself. [00:14:32] Trump is president. She ran a horrible campaign, by your opinion, with zero estimation of measured evidence. But we're judging a candidate based on everything but one thing [00:14:50] her ability to lead and to express the apparent values of you. You didn't say she doesn't embody your values. You did not say that she has a policy issue that you could not get over. [00:15:11] You talked about personality and room. Shame on you. Democratic operative and Miss Jones, all due respect. - All right, Sharon, thoughts here? - Here. [00:15:27] It has been long, practiced in America that they want to suppress and alter the essence of the black woman. It's something you can't fight back. It's who I am. It's who she is. [00:15:42] And I love that the comparisons to too fiery to this to that. So Gavin Newsom can put up a whole social media account and fight Trump the way Trump deserves to be fought. Okay. He can cuss in interviews openly and God's attaboy. [00:15:58] Oh, I like his style. That's a good fight. But when Jasmine Crockett simply. I mean, she's so talented. A lawyer. I mean, simply tells the truth. I heard man on the street interviews from people I would deem good white people. Now, there, I said it, and they were saying crazy stuff. [00:16:16] Yes, some, like you just acknowledged. I just think she's she's too fiery. She's clapping back. She's. Say what? Now you're in Texas. Your governor wants to wants migrants to die a slow and painful death [00:16:34] with barbed wire and electrocution. And you're worried about Jasmine Crockett having some passion? Oh, I get it. She's black. She's a black woman. Yep, yep. You you just freed some people. [00:16:49] Even with the Governor Newsom thing, his style contextualized through a Jasmine Crockett would be seen as absolutely adverse, but his style contextualized through a white male. You know, this is a guy we can have a beer with like him.